March 2026 Market Review: Oil, the S&P, and What I'm Watching Right Now

March 2026 was, as I told clients in this month's video review — it was indeed a month.

A lot happened. Oil spiked dramatically. The S&P pulled back nearly 10%. Bonds sold off. And depending on which side of the trade you were on, it either felt like chaos or opportunity. I want to break down the four things I'm watching most closely heading into April, and what they might mean for your portfolio.

As always — this is market commentary, not personalized investment advice. Every client situation is different, and if anything here raises questions about your own plan, that's exactly what our complimentary consultation is for.

The Big Story: A Binary Market

For most of March, markets were running on a single variable: the conflict in the Middle East.

That created what traders call a binary environment — meaning almost every asset was moving based on one question. Is the conflict getting worse, or isn't it?

If you were positioned for escalation: long oil, short stocks, short bonds, long volatility. If you were positioned for de-escalation: the exact opposite — long the S&P, long gold, long bonds, short oil.

There wasn't a lot of nuance in the middle. That's unusual, and it makes it a difficult environment to navigate without a clear, pre-established plan. The clients who stayed calm were the ones who had one.

The S&P: Two Scenarios I'm Watching

The S&P pulled back close to 10% before bouncing in the last few days of the month. That's a meaningful correction — not a catastrophe, but enough to shake confidence.

Here's how I'm thinking about where we go from here. I see two reasonable scenarios:

The first is that this was a failed breakdown — meaning the selloff went as far as it was going to go, and the bounce we've started to see is the beginning of a more sustained recovery. If that's the case, a lot of the fuel comes from short covering. Hedge funds and quantitative managers got very bearish very quickly, and when the news gets even slightly less bad, that positioning tends to unwind fast — pushing prices higher.

The second scenario looks more like what we saw last year during the tariff tantrum. We get a bounce, it fails at resistance, and we make one more lower low — potentially down to the 6,100–6,150 level — before finding a more durable bottom. Given that this is a midterm year, and midterm years historically tend to see choppy, sideways markets through spring and summer before a stronger finish, that scenario wouldn't surprise me either.

I'm not married to either. I'm watching price, staying open-minded, and taking things week to week.

Oil: What History Tells Us About Spikes Like This

WTI crude oil started March just below $68 a barrel. By the close on April 2nd, it was hovering above $110. That's a 60%+ move, driven almost entirely by fears around the Strait of Hormuz and what a prolonged conflict could do to global supply.

I want to share some historical context here, because I think it's useful.

When you look at a 20-year monthly chart of oil, you see a consistent pattern: major oil spikes tend to peak sometime in the late spring or summer. Before the financial crisis, WTI topped in early July 2008. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, oil peaked in mid-to-late June before falling sharply.

That doesn't mean this spike follows the same path. If there's a ceasefire, or if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil could fall quickly and significantly. If the conflict deepens, we could see prices hold or push higher. But the historical pattern is something worth keeping in mind — especially if you have meaningful energy or commodity exposure in your portfolio.

The Bond Market: A Pattern Worth Knowing

This is the one I want to make sure isn't getting lost in the noise.

When oil rises sharply, inflation expectations follow — and that's exactly what happened. The 10-year Treasury yield moved from just under 4% to nearly 4.5% over the course of the month.

But what I'm watching more closely is the 2-year yield, which is a better real-time signal for where the Fed is headed. For a while, it looked like the 2-year wanted to break below 3.5% — which would have signaled more Fed rate cuts on the horizon and generally been positive for stocks.

Instead, what I'm seeing on the chart looks like a potential failed breakdown — a long consolidation that may now be setting up to resolve upward. If 2-year yields push back toward 5.25% or even 6%, that would be a meaningful headwind for both stocks and bonds. It's not a prediction. But the last time we saw rates rise sharply — in 2022 and 2023 — markets had a hard time absorbing it.

If you're carrying significant bond exposure, it's worth reviewing that with your advisor.

One Thing That's Actually Constructive

I want to end on something that doesn't get talked about enough: a breadth thrust.

Even as the S&P was making lower lows, fewer and fewer stocks were actually driving those declines. The McClellan Oscillator — which tracks the momentum of the advance-decline line across the market — moved from -87 all the way to nearly +20 in a matter of days.

That kind of divergence is historically constructive. It doesn't mean the market can't go lower. But it's a signal that the selling was becoming exhausted — which is usually a precondition for a more durable recovery.

Price is the only thing that pays. But this is the kind of thing I put in the 'glass half full' column when I'm looking at the full picture.

What This Means If You're a Client — or Thinking About Becoming One

Market months like March are a good reminder of why having a plan matters more than having opinions about the market.

If you're within 10 years of retirement, a 10% correction shouldn't change your strategy — but it should prompt a conversation about whether your allocation still matches your timeline and risk tolerance. If you have cash sitting on the sidelines, a volatile market can be an opportunity to put it to work thoughtfully. And if you're not sure what any of this means for your specific situation, that's exactly the conversation I have every day with clients in Alexandria, Northern Virginia, and beyond.

A complimentary consultation is 30 minutes. No pitch, no obligation — just an honest look at where you are and whether there's anything worth adjusting.

Ready to Work With JTM?

If you are seeking structured, fiduciary-driven wealth management, JTM is here to help. Schedule a consultation today to learn how working with a Certified Financial Planner for Wealth Management can align your financial strategy with your long-term goals.

Check out this month's recap on YouTube

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